LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission's final aerial survey of the 2023-24 waterfowl season revealed the lowest Delta mallard population estimates on record since 2009.
According to biologists, the new numbers were more than a half-million mallards below the 2009-2024 late January long-term average.
On average, mallards account for about 55% of all ducks in the Delta during late January surveys. However, during this survey period, mallards only made up 33% of the total duck estimate.
Additionally, the state's total duck population estimates were nearly 480,000 birds below the long-term average, largely due to the low number of mallards.
However, biologists did note that they faced challenging weather conditions while conducting surveys this season. Crews began surveying on January 19, when shallow water was still frozen, and reported seeing clustered distributions of birds.
The following week, flight crews were forced to take a break due to dense fog and low ceilings. As the state thawed, the final flying days were pushed to the last week of January.
“It is important to note the majority of the Delta was flown between Jan. 25 and Feb 1, at which point the state had thawed out and began to receive a lot of rain providing better habitat conditions across the landscape,” said Brett Leach, AGFC Waterfowl Program Coordinator. “While the Arkansas River Valley was flown during the arctic blast while most small bodies of water were frozen.”
Biologists estimated over 40,000 mallards in three survey zones: the Black River-Upper White River, CacheRiver, and the Lower White. These zones accounted for 66% of the Delta mallard estimate and 63% of the total duck estimate. The highest total duck estimates also came from these three survey zones.
Hotspot maps were used to indicate several key duck concentration areas, primarily in the central portion of the Delta, but also throughout the northeast part of the state.
Transect-based surveys in the Delta estimated 250,401 mallards and 752,293 total ducks. In the Arkansas River Valley, duck population estimates were 76,764 total ducks, including 38,321 mallards. Meanwhile, surveys in southwest Arkansas revealed an estimated 22,830 ducks with 5,455 mallards.
Arkansas River Valley mallard estimates were 2,900 shy of the late January long-term average and total duck estimates were 17,400 ducks above the long-term average.
During the late January survey, mallards typically make up 63% of the total duck estimate in the Arkansas River Valley, but they were at 50% this survey period.
57% of the mallards were estimated in the Holla Bend and Point Remove-Plumerville survey zones.
Total duck estimates were highest in the Holla Bend, Point Remove-Plumerville, and East Dardanelle Reservoir survey zones, with the highest late January numbers since 2018.
Southwest Arkansas cruise survey counts showed slightly below-average numbers of total ducks and mallards, with about two-thirds of all mallards observed along the Red River from U.S. Highway 82 to the Sulphur River.
Arctic goose population estimates totaled 645,607 light geese and 189,406 greater white-fronted geese in the Delta. Total goose estimates topped duck counts in the Delta throughout the season.
For more information on these surveys or to view detailed survey maps, please visit the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission's website.