LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — We’re roughly 12 days from Christmas and you’re probably wondering if we’ll see a White Christmas this year? We’ll do our diligence to answer that question in the coming days by checking out forecast models and trends. But first, what are the odds and when was the last White Christmas in Litle Rock?
According to the National Weather Service, there has been a dozen occurrences of snow on Christmas Day… measurable snow has fallen four times, and trace amounts the other eight times during the time period of 1875 to 2023. Snow was already on the ground on Christmas day in 1876, 1963, and 2004.
On average, about once every ten years, snow is either covering the ground or falling from the sky. Many of us may remember Christmas 2012, when snow fell during Christmas day, piling up to 9 inches! In all the event produced between 10 and 15 inches of snow across central Arkansas.
Historically, there’s less than a 10% chance of one inch of snow on Christmas Day. So, the odds of a White Christmas are very low in Little Rock and Arkansas.
Now, let’s take a glance forward to Christmas Day 2024 and see what our forecast models are currently projecting as of today, Dec. 13th.
White Christmas outlook
We depend on a myriad of long-range models, but the GFS and EURO are the two models we’ll use from now until Christmas. Both models indicate cool temperatures on Christmas morning. However, at this time it doesn't appear cold enough to support snow.
As far as precipitation, the EURO model is dry for the most part with departing precipitation and the GFS leaning toward a little rain during the morning hours on Christmas day. Again, we’re 12 days out from Christmas and the overall forecast model trends will change.
We’ll compare model information daily leading up to Christmas. Currently it appears that dry weather conditions are expected, but models differ in temperatures.